Sunday, November 18, 2012

Bowl Game For Lompoc Still Problematic

My Nickel

(Cause My Two Cents Weren't Enough) 

Well, here we go again. After spending much of the season, high on various lists, and watching the teams ahead of them lose, the Lompoc Braves have started being dropped down the rankings. Beat your rival Cabrillo 66-0, and fall 7 spots in the MaxPreps California state rankings. Pound St. Francis from the vaunted Mission League 42-7 to go to 11-0 on the season, and MaxPreps drops you a spot in their DII South ranking to make room for previously unranked Poway. Oh, and that 'new' spot ? That would be 9th.

CalHi began the season with Lompoc in 4th in DII South - behind Oceanside, Helix, and Serra. As each of them lost, they fell in the rankings, often below Lompoc. So the Braves, moved up, right?? Not quite. New teams, like Edison, Chaminade, Cathedral Catholic, Hart, etc. were found to leap over them. When they lost, there has always been somebody else to put ahead of the Braves.

So what exactly is the situation, how are the teams selected, who makes the decisions, and what are the criteria ?

The System
Theoretically, it is a fairly simple set-up. Division Champions from all 10 CIF Sections are placed are placed in "State Divisions" and, starting this year, 4 teams are selected from each of the State Divisions - 2 from the North and 2 from the South - to compete in  "Regional Championship" games. The winners of those games advance to the "State Bowl Championship". The criteria is both simple and complex. The simple part is win your division, the complex part is be selected by the committee.

Part of the problem is that the Sections have varying methods for determining who is in what division. The Central Coast Section, for instance, determines who is in what playoff division as part of their playoff seeding procedure, others go strictly by school enrollment. There are also widely varying numbers of divisions. They range from San Francisco & Oakland, which each have 1 division, to the massive Southern Section, which has 13 divisions in 11-Man. Some sections also have 8-Man divisions, which thus far are not included in the State CIF Bowl system.

There are 5 Bowl Divisions, including an "Open Division" whose teams may be selected from any of the other divisions, and Divisions I, II, III, and IV. The Open Division is the de facto playground of the big schools vying for National attention. The Small Schools (IV) division constitutes a special case that we will delve more into in a bit.

The Bowl Division assignments for this year are:


North [6 Sections]
Division I [4]: Central Coast Section – Open Division, North Coast Section – Division I, Sac-Joaquin Section – Division I, Sac-Joaquin Section – Division II.

Division II [6]: Central Coast Section – Division I, Central Coast Section – Division II, North Coast Section – Division II, Northern Section – Division I, San Fransisco Section (all), Sac-Joaquin Section – Division III.

Division III[12]: Central Coast Section – Division III, Central Coast Section – Division IV, North Coast Section – Division III, North Coast Section – Division IV, North Coast Section – Division V, Northern Section – Division II, Northern Section – Division III, Northern Section – Division IV, Oakland Section (all), Sac-Joaquin Section  – Division IV, Sac-Joaquin Section – Division V, Sac-Joaquin Section – Division VI.

Division IV
Schools with enrollment 1-500.  If a Division III Section Champion is within the DIV enrollment parameters of 1-500, they will be moved to that division for Bowl Game consideration.

If there are no schools available for selection in DIV, the smallest remaining DIII school will become the DIV representative. The other region may then move additional schools from DIII to DIV whose enrollment is less than or equal to that of the opposing region’s DIV representative.


South: [4 Sections]
Division I [5 divisions - 123 teams]
Central Section – Division I (14 teams), Los Angeles Section – Division I (28), San Diego Section – Division I (18), Southern Section – [I] Pac-5 Division (33), Southern Section – [II] Inland Division (30).

Division II [11 Divisions - 288 teams]
Central Section – Division II (14), Central Section – Division III (18), Los Angeles Section – Division II (39), San Diego Section – Division II (17), San Diego Section – Division III (18), Southern Section – [III] Northern Division (27), Southern Section – [IV] Western Division (30), Southern Section – [V] Central Division (32), Southern Section – [VI] Southwest Division (31), Southern Section – [VII] Southeast Division (34), Southern Section – [VIII] Eastern Division (28).

Division III [10 Divisions - 223 teams]
Central Section – Division IV (19), Central Section – Division V (13), Central Section – Division VI (12),San Diego Section – Division IV (17), San Diego Section – Division V (22), Southern Section – [IX] Southern Division (33), Southern Section – [X] Northwest Division (30), Southern Section – [XI] Mid Valley Division (27), Southern Section – [XII] East Valley Division (37), Southern Section – [XIII] Northeast Division (30).

Division IV
Schools with enrollment 1-500.  If a Division III Section Champion is within the DIV enrollment parameters of 1-500, they will be moved to that division for Bowl Game consideration.

If there are no schools available for selection in DIV, the smallest remaining DIII school will become the DIV representative. The other region may then move additional schools from DIII to DIV whose enrollment is less than or equal to that of the opposing region’s DIV representative.

The Situation

As you can see, since you no doubt easily picked out the SS-Western Division in DII South, that Lompoc is in the pool with the largest number of teams and the 2nd largest number of division champions. Essentially, the Braves must win out in CIF-SS play - beat Serra on Friday and the winner of the Cathedral/Chaminade game next week. Then comes the hard part - beating out 9 other division Champs for 1 of the 2 spots in the regional.

The selection committee, mostly made up of school/CIF administrators from major metropolitan areas, are to follow this guidance provided by CIF State:

Qualifying Criteria 
 Only section champions will be eligible.
 Selection Guidelines 
  * Won – Loss Record  (Preseason – League – Section Playoffs)
  * Strength of Schedule (Preseason – League – Section Playoffs)
  * Head to Head Competition
  * Common Opponents
  * Suitability to represent the State in a Bowl Championship with regards to Pursuing Victory with Honor and acceptable standards of sportsmanship.

Special Note: Point differential in final scores will not be considered in the selection process. Media input and computerized rankings will only be used as a guide in the selection process.

Of course there are other considerations that will be the proverbial elephant in the room - regional balance, who can fill seats in the stadium and generate TV viewership, who do we think can beat the other sides pick?, etc. - the possibillities are legion.


So, who else is in the running ?

Well, apart from the 3 previously mentioned teams in our own Western Division, all of whom have been ranked higher than Lompoc by MaxPreps/CalHi/et al during the season, and who many folks outside the area regard as naturally superior to the Braves - there are 10 Divisions to consider.

Southern IV Western 
Serra (Gardena) 10-2 at Lompoc 12-0 
Cathedral (Los Angeles) 10-2 at Chaminade (West Hills) 11-1

All three of these teams are from the Mission League which is very highly regarded in the LA area. St Francis, Lompoc's 1st round opponent finished 5th in the Mission. Chaminade's only loss was to Oaks Christian, and you can see their victory over Serra HERE. Serra lost to Narbonne and Chaminade, while Cthedral lost to the other two.

Central II
Sunnyside (Fresno) 8-3 at Garces (Bakersfield) 10-1
West (Bakersfield) 6-6 at Sanger 9-2

Garces is the #1 Seed in Central II and recieved a 1st round BYE. Their only loss (34-24) was to Bakersfield who lost to Frontier.

Central III
Independence (Bakersfield) 6-5 at Ridgeview (Bakersfield) 9-2
Porterville 6-5 at Dinuba 10-1

Dinuba's biggest win of the season was Porterville, not sure doing it again would help much.

Los Angeles II
San Fernando 10-2 at South East (South Gate) 11-1
Jefferson (LA) 9-3 at Canoga Park 8-4

These are the top 4 seeds in the LA II Division, but very few LA teams have ever been selected.

San Diego II
Valhalla (El Cajon) 9-3 at Oceanside 10-1
Poway 9-2 at Helix (La Mesa) 10-0

Oceanside was the preseason choice of most of the prognosticators, and Helix is a defending State Bowl Champion - one of them will likely claim a spot in the Regional.

San Diego III
Lincoln (SD) 8-3 at Olympian (Chula Vista) 11-0
Serra (SD) 9-2 at Ramona 7-4

Cathedral Catholic was 8-2 and the #2 seed in this division until they had to forfeit all their games and withdraw from the playoffs due to an ineligible player. Many analysts were picking them to knock off Olympian. Some think Lincoln might beat then to it. The good news is that it would be unlikely for San Diego to get both Regional slots.

Southern III Northern
West (Torrance) 9-3 at Atascadero 6-6
Palos Verdes (Palos Verdes Estates) 9-3 at Valencia 9-3

The Atascadero Greyhounds did the Braves a favor by taking out top seeded Palmdale, who was 10-0. Be nice to see them pull off a couple more upsets. Hart who was also a contender, lost their last two league games, blew out Arroyo Grande, then lost to Palos Verdes.

Southern V Central
Rancho Verde (Moreno Valley) 9-3 at Paloma Valley (Menifee) 9-3
Kaiser (Fontana) 11-1 at Heritage (Romoland) 11-1

Southern VI Southwest
Foothill (Santa Ana) 10-2 vs Edison (Huntington Beach) 11-1
Villa Park 11-1 at Tustin 12-0

This Orange County group is a problem for the Braves - they might get the nod over Tustin, but who do you think they would be more likely to pick - a team from Lompoc or Huntington Beach?

Southern VII Southeast
Santa Fe (Santa Fe Springs) 7-5 at Downey 9-3
West Covina 7-5 at La Serna (Whittier) 11-1

Southern VIII Eastern
Citrus Hill (Perris) 12-0 at Tahquitz (Hemet) 9-3
Serrano (Phelan) 12-0 at Carter (Rialto) 12-0

Three 12-0 Teams Remain - That is certainly an argument.


Closing Thoughts

Lompoc's basic problem is that for many of the analysts and selectors they are virtually indistinguishable from the likes of Olympian, Tustin, and Citrus Hill. Working in their favor is the 32 winning streak, now the longest  in CIF & California and 15th nationally, and the (potentially) 3 consecutive Championships. They would also get a bump if they knock off Serra and Chaminade.

One other factor they may have to overcome is Section politics (surprise). St Bonaventure (Ventura), the PAC-5 Division #1 Seed, is a strong possibility for the DI game since LA's Narbonne is the prohibitive favorite for the Open Division, and both Bishop Diego (Santa Barbara) and Mission Prep (SLO) are front-runners in the DivIII/DivIV melange. Both are well under the 500 enrollment figure for DIV, but have already played, so if they win their divisions they could be sent to different levels.

All that would put considerable pressure on the committee to 'spread the wealth' around to Orange, Riverside, and San Benadino Counties, etc., and of course, the Central and San Diego Sections.

Are the Braves a lock for selection ? No. Are they locked out? No, again. But in the two most renowned rankings they are 4th and 9th. Two teams will be selected, and those are not odds you would want to push real far. Unfortunately, I can't shake the feeling that Lompoc is regarded as a place-holder in the rankings, as they wait for the Braves to lose so that someone more 'suitable' can be installed. It would be nice to mess with their calculations. The new rankings are expected to come out on Tuesday. Let the off the field games begin !!!

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