Friday, November 12, 2010

CIF Football - Guesstimations & Certitudes {UPDATE}

CIF Football
The 8-man playoffs started this weekend and the 11-man team selection and brackets will be announced on Sunday. Below are the projections for the 11-man local leagues & the 8-man results so far.

11-Man Playoffs (LPL/Pac-7)
The playoff pairings will be released here on Sunday.

Division X (Northwest) [Los Padres League]
This division consists of 25 teams in 4 leagues - 16 teams will make the playoffs.
The breakdown is as follows: Los Padres - 4, Tri-Valley -3, Del Rey- 4, Pioneer- 3, At-large - 2.

Standings
Los Padres (7): Lompoc 7-3 (5-1), Morro Bay 5-5 (4-2), Santa Ynez 5-5 (4-2), Templeton 6-4 (4-2), Cabrillo 4-6 (3-3), Santa Maria 3-7 (1-5), Nipomo 0-10 (0-6).

Tri-Valley (5): Nordhoff [Ojai] 10-0 (4-0), [Carpinteria 7-3 (2-2), Oak Park 6-4 (2-2), Fillmore 7-3 (2-2)], Santa Paula 5-5 (1-3).

Del Rey (7): Bishop Montgomery 8-2 (6-0), Cantwell-Sacred Heart 9-1 (5-1), Mary Star of the Sea 4-6 (4-2), Verbum Dei 5-5 (3-3), Bosco Tech 5-5 (2-4), St. Bernard 3-7 (1-5),
Lasalle 0-10 (0-6).

Pioneer (6): South Torrance 9-1 (5-0), North Torrance 7-3 (4-1), Centennial 5-5 (3-2), El Segundo 6-4 (2-3), Torrance 2-7-1 (1-4), Lawndale 2-8 (0-5).

This looked like it was starting to shake out - with the exception of the LPL, but then everything fell apart in the last 3 weeks. El Segundo, for example, was rolling. Undefeated, including 3 big wins over Del Rey opponents, then they dropped a close game to Oak Park. They recovered with a pair of PL wins, and then lost their last 3 league games to finish 6-4 (2-3). Oak Park ? Start 6-2, then drop their last two.

On Friday, Santa Paula scrambled the TVL situation further by knocking off Fillmore for their first league win and a .500 record - creating a 3-way tie for 2nd. And Mary Star lost 5 games to start the season, but finished by reeling off 3 wins in a row, to finish 4-6 (4-2 DRL). And then there's the LPL....

So here goes trying to bring some order out of the chaos -
In the Playoffs [11]:
LPL: Lompoc 7-3 (5-1), Morro Bay 5-5 (4-2), Santa Ynez 5-5 (4-2), Templeton 6-4 (4-2).
TVL: Nordhoff [Ojai] 10-0 (4-0).
DRL: Bishop Montgomery 8-2 (6-0), Cantwell-Sacred Heart 9-1 (5-1), Mary Star 4-6 (4-2),
PL: South Torrance 9-1 (5-0), North Torrance 7-3 (4-1), Centennial 5-5 (3-2),

Note there are two teams that act as displacers of squads with better overall records.

The Bubble [8 teams - 5 spots]:
Automatic Qualifiers - 3 spaces
1). Other 2 TVL spots (2 of 3) - Carpinteria 7-3 (2-2), Oak Park 6-4 (2-2), Fillmore 7-2 (2-2)

2). 4th DRL spot (1 of 2) - Bosco Tech 5-5 (2-4), Verbum Dei 5-5 (3-3)
Corection of Bosco Tech Record from 6-4 (3-3).

At Large Pool - 2 spaces
The two teams from above that do not get those slots (The two worst records being 6-4 & 5-5)
plus three teams.
{UPDATED}
Team 'A' = Fillmore 7-2 (2-2) [Santa Paula won Head-to-Head]
Team 'B' = Bosco Tech 5-5 (2-4)
El Segundo 6-4 (2-3) - IN
Santa Paula 5-5 (1-3)
- IN
Cabrillo
4-6 (3-3)

Out of the Playoffs [6]:
St. Bernard 3-7 (1-5), Santa Maria 3-7 (1-5), Torrance 2-7-1 (1-4), Lawndale 2-8 (0-5), Nipomo 0-10 (0-6), Lasalle 0-10 (0-6).


Division IV (Western) [Pac-7 League]
This division consists of 36 teams in 6 leagues. Each league has 2 Automatic Qualifiers & there are 4 at-large places. Straight-forward right ? Ahh- not quite.

Standings
Pac-7
Paso Robles 8-2 (6-0), Atascadero 8-2 (4-2), - Clinched
Arroyo Grande 8-2 (4-2), Righetti 6-4 (3-3),- Possible At-large [AG 95%, Rig 5%]
St. Joseph 5-5 (2-4), San Luis Obispo 4-6 (2-4), Pioneer Valley 3-7 (0-6). - Out

Channel

Dos Pueblos 7-3 (4-0), Ventura 6-4 (3-1), - Clinched
Buena 5-5 (2-2), Santa Barbara 2-8 (1-3), San Marcos 1-9 (0-4). -Out

Pacific View
[Oxnard 8-2 (4-1), Camarillo 7-3 (4-1), Rio Mesa 6-4 (4-1), ]
- All 3 likely in.
Pacifica 4-6 (2-3), Hueneme 2-8 (1-4), Channel Islands 2-8 (0-5).
- Out

Mission:
Serra 10-0 (5-0), Chaminade 9-1 (4-1), - Clinched
St. Francis 6-4 (3-2), St. Paul 6-4 (2-3), - Maybe one.
Cathedral 5-5 (1-4), Harvard-Westlake 2-7-1 (0-5). - Out

Ocean:
Inglewood 8-2 (5-0),
[Santa Monica 6-4 (3-2), Culver City 6-4 (3-2), Beverly Hills 6-4 (3-2),]
- One, longshot two.
Hawthorne 2-8 (1-4), Morningside 1-9 (0-5). - Out

San Gabriel Valley:
Dominguez 9-1 (5-0),

[Downey 6-4 (3-2), Warren 4-6 (3-2)], - Likely just one.
Gahr 5-5 (2-3), Paramount 5-5 (2-3), Lynwood 2-8 (0-5).


Playoff Signals: Green light - 8, Yellow - 12 , Red -16. Upshot is 4 yellow get cut.

10 teams have a 7-3 or better record. Another 9 are 6-4. Only one potential AQ is outside those groups, thus eliminating all the others at .500 or below.

First - We give an at-large spot to Arroyo Grande. They have one of the best records in the division - 2 games better than any other possible 3rd place team, and are ranked 7th.

Second - we resolve 3 ties:

1). Pacific View 3-way 1st place tie - Oxnard 8-2 (4-1), Camarillo 7-3 (4-1), Rio Mesa 6-4 (4-1).
Two get in via AQ and all 3 are likely in. All are ranked in the Top 11, and Oxnard/Camarillo having top 10 records, should easily qualify for AL berths if forced into the pool. The only question is whether #11 Rio Mesa can secure an AL - I think they do, since they would be in a 1st place tie and the other candidates were at best tied for 2nd.

2). Ocean 3-way 2nd place tie - #13 Santa Monica 6-4 (3-2), #16 Culver City 6-4 (3-2), #17 Beverly Hills 6-4(3-2). One gets the AQ - the others go to the AL pool.

3). SGV 2nd place tie: Downey 6-4 (3-2), Warren 4-6 (3-2). If Downey is the #2, Warren is out, if reversed, then Downey goes to AL Pool.

Ranking the potential At-Large Pool:
[Based on likelyhood of selection]
Remember 4 of these teams will be tagged as AQ's & the AL's will come from the remainder.
{UPDATED}
1. Oxnard 8-2 - IN AL
2. Arroyo Grande 8-2 -IN AL
3. Camarillo 7-3
4. Rio Mesa 6-4
5. Santa Monica 6-4
6. Downey 6-4
7. St. Francis 6-4 - IN AL
8. Beverly Hills 6-4- IN AL
9. Culver City 6-4

And the two top 4th place finishers.
10. Righetti 6-4
11. St Paul 6-4


8-Man Playoffs
There are two local 8-man leagues - one in each division. Three squads from each league made the playoffs this year - and went 5-1 in the first round.

8-Man Division 1 [Condor League]
The Condor League has only recently sanctioned football as a league sport, but some member schools have been playing for a while. The CL only has 4 members for football, but several more in other sports (i.e. 8 in basketball). [Orcutt Academy has also talked about joining the CL.] One of those other teams, Ojai Valley, has recently started a football program, but the Spuds (Yes, the Spuds) were a Div. 1 freelance team this year, going 0-6.

2010 Condor League Standings:
Cate (Carpenteria) 8-0, 3-0
Thatcher (Ojai) 4-3, 2-1
Laguna Blanca (Santa Barbara) 5-3, 1-2
Dunn (Los Olivos) 2-6, 0-3

All but the Dunn Earwigs made the Div. 1 playoffs. The Cate Rams drew the #2 seed, while at-large selections Thatcher (Toads) & Laguna Blanca (Owls) were seeded 9th & 11th respectively.

1st Round
Saturday - #15 Pacific Lutheran 4-4 (2-2) [Coastal #2/AL] at #2 Cate
Friday - #9 Thatcher at #8 West Shores 7-2 (4-0) [Warrior #1]
Friday - #11 Laguna Blanca at #6 Capistrano Valley Chrn. 7-1 (5-0) [Express #1]

Cate , Pac. Lutheran {Not Yet Played}
Thatcher 66, West Shores 20
Laguna Blanca 28, Capo Vlly Chrn. 12

2nd Round
#9 Thatcher (5-3) vs.
#1 Faith Babtist (10-0, 3-0) [Heritage #1] {def Victor Vlly Chrn. (5-4) 54-6 }

#11 Laguna Blanca (6-3) vs.
#3 Santa Clarita Chrn. (9-1, 2-1) [Heritage #2/AL] {def Riverside Prep (5-5) 46-0 }


8-Man Division 2 [Coast Valley League]
The Coast Valley League is somewhat more established in football, but also has a few teams that fade in-and-out of the scene (Coastal Chrn, etc.). Cambria's Coast Union HS is a CVL member for many sports, but, with a 17 man roster, they are currently an 11-man member of CIF- Central Section for football.

2010 Coast Valley League Standings:
Cuyama Valley (SB County) 7-2, 4-0
North County Chrn. (Atascadero) 8-1, 3-1
Shandon (SLO County) 4-4, 2-2
Maricopa (Ventura County) 2-6, 1-3
Vlly Chrn Acad (Santa Maria) 3-6, 0-4

The Cuyama Valley Bears recieved the automatic bid and the #5 seed, while the NCC Crusaders (#6) and Shandon Outlaws (#15) recieved at-large picks. The Maricopa Indians and the VCA Lions were passed over.

1st Round
Friday - #12 Westmark 4-3-1 (3-1) [Omega #2/AL] at #5 Cuyama Valley
Saturday - # 11 Lighthouse Christian 4-3 (2-2) [Coastal #2/AL] at #6 NCC
Friday - #15 Shandon at Desert Chrn. Acad. 7-2 (3-1) [Victory #2/AL]

Cuyama Valley 56, Westmark 20
North County Chrn. , Lighthouse Chrn. {Not Yet Played}
Desert Chrn. Acad. 58, Shandon 0

2nd Round
#5 Cuyama Valley (8-2) vs. TBA

Other Teams:
Bishop Diego (Santa Barbara) finished 2nd in the 5 team Frontier League behind Grace Brethren of Simi Valley. The Cardinals posted a 5-5 (3-1) record and should get a bid to the Div. XII playoff party.

Mission Prep, of San Luis Obispo, played as a Div. XIII freelance team in CIF-SS this year. The Royals posted a 5-5 record and have a shot at a playoff berth.

The Coast Union Broncos went 3-7 (2-2, 3rd of 5 in the East Sierra League) and await their CIF-CS Div. 5 fate. They have the 10th best record of the 15 teams in their division.

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